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This popped up today and while I happen to think that it's a bit lame for to create so much drama about this when there's so much available angst because of the recent deaths that doesn't stop me from trying to figure out what's going to happen.
There are essentially four possible outcomes for the great forgiveness dilemma in the season finale: Elena forgives Damon and he dies, Elena forgives Damon and he survives, Elena does not forgive Damon and he dies, and Elena does not forgive Damon and he survives. Each scenario carries its own plotty implications of varying interest, and I’ve outlined most of my thoughts below, in order from most likely to least likely.
(Note: I use the all-encompassing “show” to refer to the writers, creators, network executives, and anyone else who might have control over what we see, because it’s a really short word that saves me time.)
Elena forgives Damon and he survives
I think this is the most boring of all of the possibilities, but it’s also the one I think is most likely, given the fact that there’s no way the show is going to let Damon die. Assuming Elena is sincere her conscience would be unburdened and she could attempt a fresh start with Damon. Then she could use it to manipulate him if he ever acts out again, reminding him that she granted forgiveness and he should be proving that he earned it. This allows the show to operate in much the same manner it always has: Elena maintains that she is morally superior to Damon, and Damon gets to play the bad boy while occasionally expressing regret before working his eyebrows to exhaustion.
Elena does not forgive Damon and he survives
This would go a lot like the previous scenario, but it would involve them acknowledging that Damon has to work a lot harder than he has to earn Elena’s forgiveness. This might be just as likely as that one if they’re trying to create tension while keeping Damon alive. Elena could still manipulate Damon and force him to behave, or she could declare that he’s beyond saving and refuse to consider any overtures towards making peace. But with everyone who’s died so far it seems unlikely that she would push someone else out of her life, and if she did I can see the show making it more about her coming around to accept him than about him actually deserving anything. And Damon doesn’t have to throw himself at Elena because he could play the scorned one and become more violent. (Which the show could then claim was Elena’s fault and, oh gods, blame her for his actions. Ick.) Or Elena and Damon could both work towards some sort of tentative peace and forgiveness throughout the next season, providing both tension and an arc, plus setting the groundwork for some sort of romance between them, if the show chooses to.
Elena forgives Damon and he dies
This is also boring, but at least Damon would die, which would be unexpected. And it suggests the possibility of closure. No regrets, just one more person to mourn, no big deal. Honestly, this one is hard to plot out because it seems so unlikely. There’s little drama here beyond the death. Damon would be able to die peacefully and Elena would have the aforementioned unburdened conscience as she thinks about how much it sucks that everyone around her seems to die and maybe she should get away from these vampires. But there’s not nearly enough angst involved in this one to justify it happening, not when there’s another season. Maybe as part of the series finale, but that’s irrelevant now.
And finally...
Elena does not forgive Damon and he dies
Unlike the previous one this has serious angst to make it possible. The guilt that Elena could feel! She let Damon die without her forgiveness, and now even if she changes her mind (because dying is totally an acceptable way to show you regret your life of raping and pillaging ways) there’s no way for it to bring him peace. And worse, what if it turns out that Damon pulled a Padme Amidala and died of a broken heart because he lacked the grace of her forgiveness? That would mean Elena was responsible for his death, and it’s something more for her to feel guilty about. So it would certainly be angsty AND preserve Damon’s image as a repentant person, but I really can’t see them doing that.
(Technically there’s another possibility, and that’s that Damon does die, but Bonnie does her best Willow and resurrects him with some spell or there’s an amulet involved, but I’m not going to think about those at all.)
If this is not as interesting or as intelligent as you had hoped, then please know that I am truly sorry.
And I hope you can forgive me.